Why it matters
- The 2-year Treasury par yield rose 0.17 point to 4.73% on Tuesday, Nov. 10, its biggest one-day rise in 215 trading days this year, Treasury data show. The previous largest was 0.15 point on June 17.
- The move came from real yields. The 5-year TIPS yield rose 0.14 point to 2.56%, the same as the nominal 5-year, so the 5-year breakeven was unchanged at 2.25%, by Global Terminal's calculation.
- The dollar index rose 0.59% and gold futures fell about 1.8%, Yahoo Finance data show, while the 2s10s curve flattened to 0.25 point, its narrowest since Sept. 22.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 0.17 point to 4.73% on Tuesday, Nov. 10, its biggest daily rise this year, Treasury Department data show. The move followed a hotter consumer price report and came almost entirely from real, or inflation-adjusted, yields. Bond-market inflation expectations barely moved, by Global Terminal's calculation.
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after a 0.6% rise in September, and core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. BLS did not publish 12-month changes for October because it did not collect October 2025 data during a lapse in appropriations.
Was the 2-year yield's jump unusual?
Yes. Across 215 daily moves in 2026, Tuesday's 0.17-point rise was the largest, Treasury par yield data show. The next biggest was 0.15 point on Wednesday, June 17. The 2-year is still below its 2026 high of 4.92% on Monday, Sept. 28.
| Treasury par yield | Nov. 9 | Nov. 10 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.56% | 4.73% | +0.17 pt |
| 5-year | 4.67% | 4.81% | +0.14 pt |
| 10-year | 4.88% | 4.98% | +0.10 pt |
| 30-year | 5.26% | 5.35% | +0.09 pt |
| 5-year TIPS (real) | 2.42% | 2.56% | +0.14 pt |
| 10-year TIPS (real) | 2.66% | 2.78% | +0.12 pt |
| 5-year breakeven | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0.00 pt |
| 10-year breakeven | 2.22% | 2.20% | −0.02 pt |
| 2s10s spread | 0.32 pt | 0.25 pt | −0.07 pt |
Source: U.S. Treasury daily par and real yield curve rates. Breakevens (nominal minus real yield) and the 2s10s spread (10-year minus 2-year) are Global Terminal calculations.
Did inflation expectations rise after CPI?
No. The 5-year breakeven, a market gauge of expected inflation, held at 2.25%, and the 10-year breakeven slipped to 2.20%. The rise in nominal yields was a rise in real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield's 0.12-point gain was its third-largest daily rise this year, behind 0.13 point on Friday, March 20, and Wednesday, Sept. 23.
Rising real yields usually point to tighter expected policy rather than higher expected inflation. That reading fits the data, but the data alone cannot show what traders expect from the Fed. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, and its next meeting is Dec. 8–9.
What did the curve and other markets do?
The curve flattened. The 2s10s spread fell to 0.25 point, its narrowest since Tuesday, Sept. 22, Treasury data show. It has ranged from 0.20 point on Sept. 21 to 0.74 point on Jan. 30 this year.
Higher real yields lifted the dollar and weighed on gold. The dollar index rose 0.59% to about 102.25, and December gold futures fell about 1.8% to near $4,037.80, their biggest drop since Oct. 30, Yahoo Finance data show. That is the reverse of Nov. 4, when gold jumped while real yields barely moved, as we showed in our gold analysis. The S&P 500 slipped 0.38%.
For background on how breakevens work, see real yields and breakevens before the Fed and our explainer on why bond yields matter. Track live levels on our world markets page.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — October 2026 (Nov. 10, 2026)
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates, 2026
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury real yield curve rates, 2026
- Yahoo Finance, chart data for the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), gold futures (GC=F) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (Oct. 28, 2026)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendars