Why it matters
- December gold futures traded near $3,882 late Thursday, Nov. 12, down about 5.7% from Monday's $4,114.50 close and below their Oct. 30 close of $3,898.90, the previous 2026 low, Yahoo Finance data show.
- Real yields rose sharply. The 10-year TIPS yield climbed to 2.86% from 2.66% on Nov. 9, its highest since Oct. 13, Treasury data show, while the 10-year breakeven barely moved.
- The dollar index rose about 1.5% over the same three sessions. This year gold's daily moves have tracked the dollar (correlation −0.42) more closely than real yields (−0.19), by Global Terminal's calculation.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
December gold futures fell about 5.7% over three sessions to near $3,882 an ounce late Thursday, Nov. 12, Yahoo Finance data show. That erased the jump that followed the U.S. midterm elections: gold now sits about 1.5% below its Nov. 3 close of $3,940.40, the day before it surged above $4,000.
This time real yields moved with it. The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose 0.20 point to 2.86% between Monday, Nov. 9, and Thursday, its highest since Tuesday, Oct. 13, Treasury data show. The dollar index rose about 1.5%.
What moved with gold this week?
| Measure | Nov. 9 | Nov. 12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold, December futures | $4,114.50 | about $3,882 | −5.7% |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.65 | about 103.18 | +1.5% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.88% | 5.10% | +0.22 pt |
| 10-year TIPS (real) yield | 2.66% | 2.86% | +0.20 pt |
| 5-year TIPS (real) yield | 2.42% | 2.64% | +0.22 pt |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.22% | 2.24% | +0.02 pt |
Sources: Yahoo Finance (gold futures and the dollar index; Nov. 12 figures are late-Thursday levels); U.S. Treasury par and real yield curves. The bond market was closed Wednesday, Nov. 11, for Veterans Day. Breakevens and changes are Global Terminal calculations.
Almost all of the rise in the 10-year yield came from the real part. Breakeven inflation, the part that reflects expected inflation, rose just 0.02 point. The move began with Tuesday's consumer price report, as covered in our analysis of the 2-year yield's jump.
How does this compare with gold's Nov. 4 jump?
It is the mirror image, with one difference. On Wednesday, Nov. 4, gold jumped about 3.3% while the 10-year real yield slipped only 0.01 point; the dollar's fall did most of the work, as we showed in our gold analysis. This week both the dollar and real yields rose.
Across 215 daily moves this year, the correlation between gold futures' daily percentage change and the dollar index's was −0.42, by Global Terminal's calculation from Yahoo data. Against daily changes in the 10-year real yield, it was −0.19. Since Oct. 1, the figures are −0.47 and −0.19. That is a link, not proof of cause.
How big is the slide?
Large, but not the year's biggest. The three-day drop ranks ninth among 2026's three-session moves in Yahoo's front-month gold data. The biggest was about 10.0% in the three sessions to Monday, March 23.
Late Thursday's level would be gold's lowest close of 2026 if it holds at the settlement, Yahoo data show. The previous low close was $3,898.90 on Friday, Oct. 30.
Track gold, the dollar and Treasury yields on our world markets page.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance, chart data for gold futures (GC=F) and the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB)
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates, 2026
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury real yield curve rates, 2026