Why it matters
- January Brent settled at $92.57 a barrel on Monday, Nov. 9, down 5.9%, Bloomberg reported via Rigzone. That is 18.4% below its Oct. 30 close of $113.43, the contract's high, in six sessions.
- Brent fell faster than U.S. crude. January Brent's premium over January WTI narrowed to about $6.86 late Monday from $11.22 on Oct. 30, by Global Terminal's calculation from Yahoo Finance data.
- The futures curve flattened. January 2027 Brent's premium over December 2027 shrank to about $13.51 from $25.32, as the war premium came out of near-term barrels.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
January Brent crude settled at $92.57 a barrel on Monday, Nov. 9, down 5.9% and 18.4% below its Oct. 30 close of $113.43, Bloomberg reported via Rigzone and Yahoo Finance data show. Oil fell to its lowest since August on renewed hopes for Iran peace talks, Bloomberg said. December West Texas Intermediate settled at $86.85, down 4.4%.
Brent, the global benchmark priced off seaborne crude, has fallen faster than U.S. crude. Its premium over WTI has nearly halved since Oct. 30, by Global Terminal's calculation.
Why did oil fall on Monday?
Bloomberg said hopes grew for a breakthrough in talks to end the Iran war after the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections added pressure on Washington to seek an off-ramp. President Donald Trump said it was "highly unlikely" he would order extensive strikes on Iran, depending on Iran signing a "very strong agreement," Bloomberg reported. Prices hit session lows after an unconfirmed Al Arabiya report of progress on uranium enrichment, which Bloomberg said it could not verify.
How fast has Brent fallen?
Very fast. Three of January Brent's four biggest daily drops in a year of Yahoo data came in the past six sessions: Wednesday, Nov. 4 (-8.7%), Monday, Nov. 2 (-7.6%) and Monday, Nov. 9 (-5.9%). The other was Monday, March 23 (-6.0%). Even after the slide, the contract is still up about 53% this year from $60.36 on Jan. 2.
What happened to the Brent-WTI spread?
It shrank. Comparing the same delivery month avoids distortions from contract expiries, as we explained in our Brent-WTI spread analysis.
| Measure | Oct. 30 | Nov. 6 | Nov. 9 (late) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January Brent | $113.43 | $98.32 | $92.35 |
| January WTI | $102.21 | $89.59 | $85.49 |
| Brent premium over WTI | $11.22 | $8.73 | $6.86 |
| December 2027 Brent | $88.11 | $80.59 | $78.84 |
| Jan. 2027 premium over Dec. 2027 | $25.32 | $17.73 | $13.51 |
Source: Yahoo Finance daily data for BZF27, CLF27 and BZZ27 futures. Nov. 9 figures are late-Monday levels, which can differ slightly from settlements; Bloomberg reported January Brent's settlement at $92.57. Spreads are Global Terminal calculations.
The January Brent-WTI spread peaked this year at $11.35 on Tuesday, Oct. 27, and was as low as $3.33 on Monday, Jan. 5, Yahoo data show. At about $6.86, it is back near where it was in early June.
January WTI has fallen about 16.4% since Oct. 30, less than Brent's 18.4%. That fits a market that had been pricing a war premium into seaborne crude, though the data alone cannot prove the cause.
What does the curve say?
Near-term barrels lost most. The gap between January 2027 and December 2027 Brent nearly halved, to about $13.51 from $25.32. Our earlier look at how oil's plunge flattened Brent's curve showed the move starting on Nov. 2; it has continued since.
Track Brent and WTI on our world markets page, and see this week's cross-asset scorecard.
Sources
- Bloomberg via Rigzone, Oil Prices Sink on Iran Peace Hopes (Nov. 9, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance, chart data for January 2027 Brent (BZF27.NYM), January 2027 WTI (CLF27.NYM), December 2027 Brent (BZZ27.NYM) and December 2026 WTI (CLZ26.NYM)