Why it matters
- December gold futures traded near $4,069.60 late Wednesday, up about 3.3% from Tuesday's $3,940.40 close, Yahoo Finance data show. That would be gold's biggest daily gain since Wednesday, Aug. 5.
- The dollar index fell 0.33% to about 101.53, but the 10-year TIPS yield dipped just 0.01 point to 2.64%, Treasury data show. The fall in nominal yields was mostly lower inflation pricing.
- This year gold's daily moves have tracked the dollar more closely than real yields, with correlations of -0.40 and -0.16 across 210 trading days, by Global Terminal's calculation.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
Gold climbed back above $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, Nov. 4. December gold futures traded near $4,069.60 late in the day, up about 3.3% from Tuesday's close of $3,940.40, Yahoo Finance data show. CNBC reported that front-month futures settled 3.4% higher at $4,073 and spot gold rose 3.4% to $4,061.30, after Democrats were projected to win control of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections.
Silver did better still. December silver futures traded near $52.27, up about 5.4%, Yahoo data show.
Why did gold jump on Wednesday?
Analysts tied the move to a weaker dollar and lower U.S. yields after the election. Kitco News reported that Democrats appeared poised to take control of Congress, and that lower real yields and a weaker dollar cut the cost of holding gold. In a Tuesday note cited by CNBC, Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX, said: "Less fiscal stimulus argues for lower long yields and a softer dollar."
The data back the dollar part of that story more than the real-yield part.
| Measure | Tue., Nov. 3 | Wed., Nov. 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold, December futures | $3,940.40 | $4,069.60 (approx.) | +3.28% |
| Silver, December futures | $49.59 | $52.27 (approx.) | +5.41% |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.87 | 101.53 (approx.) | -0.33% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.95% | 4.90% | -0.05 point |
| 10-year TIPS (real) yield | 2.65% | 2.64% | -0.01 point |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.30% | 2.26% | -0.04 point |
| Gold-to-silver ratio | 79.5 | 77.8 | -1.7 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance (futures, late Wednesday around 21:45 GMT, and the dollar index); U.S. Treasury daily par and real yield curves. Breakeven is the nominal minus the real par yield; ratios and changes are Global Terminal calculations.
Did falling real yields drive gold's rally?
Mostly not. The 10-year nominal yield fell 0.05 point, but 0.04 point of that was a drop in breakeven inflation, the part of the yield that reflects expected inflation. The real yield barely moved, Treasury data show. Oil's 8.7% fall in January Brent, to a $94.62 settlement per CNBC, lines up with that lower inflation pricing.
Over a longer run the pattern holds. Across 210 daily moves from Jan. 2 to Nov. 4, the correlation between gold futures' daily percentage change and the dollar index's was -0.40, by Global Terminal's calculation from Yahoo data. Against daily changes in the 10-year real yield it was -0.16. That is a link, not proof of cause.
How big was the move?
Wednesday's gain, based on the late level, ranked seventh among 2026's daily moves in front-month gold futures, Yahoo data show. The biggest was a 6.07% gain on Tuesday, Feb. 3.
Gold is still well below its highs. The front-month contract closed at $5,318.40 on Thursday, Jan. 29, and Wednesday's level was about 23% below that. It is also down about 6.3% from its 2025 year-end close of $4,341.10. CNBC said gold rose 66% in 2025 and is down more than 6% so far in 2026.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, wrote that "geopolitical uncertainty is not automatically translating into safe-haven demand," CNBC reported. O'Connell also pointed to a Fed "leaning towards another hike." The Fed's next meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday, Dec. 8–9, Kitco noted.
Track gold, silver and the dollar on our world markets page. For background, see what drives the dollar index this week, our explainer on real yields and breakevens before the Fed and October's gold and bitcoin drop on dollar strength.
Sources
- CNBC, Gold and silver prices jump, dollar dips as Democrats take control of Congress (Nov. 4, 2026)
- CNBC, Crude oil prices fall below $90 a barrel as Vance blames GOP election defeat on Iran war (Nov. 4, 2026)
- Kitco News, Gold prices hit $4,000 as Democrats see electoral sweep to gain control of Congress (Nov. 4, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance, chart data for gold futures (GC=F), silver futures (SI=F) and the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB)
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates, 2026
- U.S. Treasury Department, Daily Treasury real yield curve rates, 2026
- Kitco News, Gold and silver surge as Democratic midterm sweep drives dollar, yields lower - Kitco AM Report (Nov. 4, 2026)