Why it matters
- The ICE U.S. dollar index was about 102.00 at 4:41 p.m. ET Monday, Oct. 19, up 0.16% from Friday, Yahoo Finance data show. Its high for the past three months was 102.95 on Oct. 14.
- The euro makes up 57.6% of the index, ICE says. Reuters said the euro fell Monday on unrest in France, while the dollar gained as AI-related stocks rebounded.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 1.69 percentage points above Germany's on Oct. 19 and 2.13 points above Japan's on Oct. 16, official data show. The Fed meets Oct. 27–28, the ECB Oct. 28–29 and the Bank of Japan Oct. 29–30.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
The ICE U.S. dollar index (DXY) traded at about 102.00 at 4:41 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 19, up 0.16% from Friday's close of 101.84, according to Yahoo Finance data. The euro, the largest part of the index, set the tone Monday, and the U.S. data calendar is light before the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27–28.
What drives the dollar index this week?
The sources below point to three factors: the euro, the gap between U.S. and foreign bond yields, and the run-up to three central bank meetings. On Monday, Reuters said the euro fell 0.24% to $1.1212 on concern about violent protests in France. The extra yield France pays over Germany on 10-year bonds widened to 147 basis points, the widest since the 2011–2012 euro debt crisis, Reuters said. It also said the dollar got a boost as AI-related stocks rebounded from last week's selloff.
What is in the dollar index?
The DXY measures the dollar against six currencies. ICE says the weights are:
| Currency | Weight | Dollar's move vs. currency, Sept. 30 to Oct. 19 |
|---|---|---|
| Euro | 57.6% | +1.1% |
| Japanese yen | 13.6% | +0.7% |
| British pound | 11.9% | −0.5% |
| Canadian dollar | 9.1% | −0.6% |
| Swedish krona | 4.2% | −0.7% |
| Swiss franc | 3.6% | −0.9% |
Source: ICE (weights); Yahoo Finance currency data, Monday levels around 4:52 p.m. ET (moves, approx.).
The dollar gained against the euro and yen since Sept. 30 but lost ground against the other four. Because the euro carries more than half the weight, the index rose about 0.5% over that span, from 101.45.
Where is the dollar index now?
Near the top of its recent range. Yahoo dates DXY daily bars by trading day.
| Period | High | Low |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 19 | 102.08 | 101.77 |
| Oct. 12–16 | 102.95 (Oct. 14) | 101.58 (Oct. 16) |
| Oct. 1–19 | 102.95 (Oct. 14) | 101.46 (Oct. 1) |
| July 20–Oct. 19 | 102.95 (Oct. 14) | 98.56 (Aug. 20) |
Source: Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB chart data.
The Oct. 14 high came after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, as our CPI market reaction analysis shows.
How wide are U.S. yield gaps with Germany and Japan?
Wider than at the end of July, the official data show.
| Date | U.S. 10-year | Germany 10-year | U.S.–Germany gap | Japan 10-year | U.S.–Japan gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 4.75% | 3.18% | 1.57 pts | 2.801% | 1.95 pts |
| Sept. 30 | 5.29% | 3.60% | 1.69 pts | 3.057% | 2.23 pts |
| Oct. 16 | 5.09% | 3.45% | 1.64 pts | 2.958% | 2.13 pts |
| Oct. 19 | 5.15% | 3.46% | 1.69 pts | not yet published | — |
Source: U.S. Treasury par yields; Deutsche Bundesbank yields derived from the term structure of federal securities; Japan Ministry of Finance JGB yields.
For more on the yen side, see our yen and BoJ yield gap analysis. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday that underlying inflation is "quite close" to the bank's 2% target, Reuters reported, and the dollar rose 0.35% to 158.49 yen.
What is on the calendar?
The Fed's October calendar lists no speeches or testimony for Oct. 19–23.
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 20, 8:30 a.m. ET | U.S. housing starts and permits, September | Census Bureau |
| Oct. 21, 10 a.m. ET | U.S. usual weekly earnings, third quarter | BLS |
| Oct. 27, 8:30 a.m. ET | U.S. durable goods orders, September | Census Bureau |
| Oct. 27–28 | Fed meeting; statement 2 p.m. ET Oct. 28 | Federal Reserve |
| Oct. 28–29 | ECB meeting; press conference Oct. 29 | ECB |
| Oct. 29–30 | Bank of Japan meeting; Outlook Report Oct. 30 | Bank of Japan |
| Oct. 30, 8:30 a.m. ET | U.S. employment cost index, third quarter | BLS |
Fed funds futures price a hold at the Fed's October meeting and 91% odds of a hike in December, Reuters said.
Live levels are on our world markets page.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance, chart data for DX-Y.NYB, EURUSD=X, JPY=X, GBPUSD=X, CAD=X, SEK=X and CHF=X, accessed Oct. 19, 2026
- ICE, Managing U.S. dollar risk in uncertain times, March 2023, and U.S. Dollar Index futures
- Reuters via AOL, Dollar firmer, euro weakens as French protests turn violent, Oct. 19, 2026
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026, accessed Oct. 19, 2026
- Deutsche Bundesbank, 10-year yields derived from the term structure of listed federal securities, daily, accessed Oct. 19, 2026
- Japan Ministry of Finance, JGB interest rates, current month and historical data, accessed Oct. 19, 2026
- Federal Reserve, October 2026 calendar
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2026 release schedule
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 economic indicator calendar
- European Central Bank, Governing Council meeting calendar
- Bank of Japan, Monetary Policy Meetings schedule