Why it matters
- The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.67% on Wednesday, Oct. 7, the highest close since July 2002 in Federal Reserve data and up 0.83 point since the end of 2025.
- Long-term yields are high across rich countries. Trading Economics data show the U.K. 30-year gilt near 5.96%, France's 30-year near 5.42% and Japan's 30-year near 4.22%.
- Oil above $100 a barrel and bets on more central bank rate hikes are the shared drivers, with budget worries adding pressure in the U.K. and France.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 5.67% on Wednesday, Oct. 7, up from 5.64% on Tuesday, according to Treasury Department data. That is its highest daily close since July 5, 2002, when it finished at 5.70%, according to the St. Louis Fed's FRED database. Long-term government bond yields stayed near multi-decade highs in the U.K., France and Japan too, Trading Economics data show.
Where are 30-year bond yields around the world?
They are high almost everywhere. The table compares 30-year and 10-year government bond yields on Wednesday.
| Country | 30-year yield | Daily change | 10-year yield | 30-year minus 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 5.67% | +0.03 pt | 5.28% | 0.39 pt |
| United Kingdom | 5.96% | +0.03 pt | 5.43% | 0.53 pt |
| France | 5.42% | +0.11 pt | 4.89% | 0.53 pt |
| Japan | 4.22% | −0.02 pt | 3.11% | 1.11 pt |
| Germany | 3.86% | about flat | 3.48% | 0.38 pt |
Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve (U.S. closes); Trading Economics (other countries, late Wednesday levels; Japan is the Wednesday Tokyo session).
The U.S. 30-year yield has risen 0.83 point since Dec. 31, 2025, when it was 4.84%, and the 10-year has risen 1.10 points from 4.18%, Treasury data show.
Why are long-term yields rising in so many countries?
Inflation risk from oil, and the rate hikes it may bring. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel amid risks to Middle East energy flows, Trading Economics reported. Markets now price more than 100 basis points of Bank of England hikes by the end of next year, about 75 basis points from the European Central Bank and about 85 basis points from the Federal Reserve, the site said.
The Fed added to that view on Wednesday. Most officials judged that "another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end," according to minutes of the Sept. 15–16 meeting. Participants also discussed "the potential factors behind the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields," the minutes said.
Which countries face extra pressure?
The U.K. and France, where budgets are in focus. The U.K. 10-year gilt yield climbed back above 5.4%, a level not seen since July 2007, Trading Economics said. The government's fiscal statement is set for Oct. 28. The 30-year gilt yield reached about 5.9% on Sept. 1, its highest since 1998, Xinhua reported.
France's 10-year yield rose 0.14 point to 4.89% on doubts about the government's ability to control spending before the 2027 election, according to Trading Economics. France's 30-year yield hit 5.57% earlier this month, the highest in the site's data. Our report on the euro's 17-month low covers the political backdrop.
Japan has the steepest curve in the table. Its 30-year yield touched a record 4.25% this month, Trading Economics data show, while the 10-year eased from 30-year highs. The Bank of Japan meets Oct. 29–30; see our Nikkei and yen analysis.
Germany is the exception. Bund yields held near 3.5% as investors sought safety, Trading Economics reported.
What did stocks do?
Most fell. The STOXX Europe 600 dropped 1.0% to 630.25, Germany's DAX lost 1.35% and France's CAC 40 fell 1.22%, Yahoo Finance data show. The S&P 500 slipped 0.22% to 7,801.77 after Tuesday's record close.
For why long-term yields matter for mortgages and stock prices, read our explainer on bond yields. Track yields on our world markets page.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS30)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates, 2026 (also the 2025 and 2001 files)
- Federal Reserve, Minutes of the FOMC meeting, Sept. 15–16, 2026
- Trading Economics, U.K. 30-year gilt yield and U.K. 10-year gilt yield
- Trading Economics, France 30-year OAT yield and France 10-year OAT yield
- Trading Economics, Japan 30-year bond yield and Japan 10-year bond yield
- Trading Economics, Germany 30-year Bund yield and Germany 10-year Bund yield
- Xinhua via The Star, UK 30-year government bond yield hits highest level since 1998, Sept. 2, 2026
- Yahoo Finance, STOXX Europe 600 (^STOXX), DAX (^GDAXI), CAC 40 (^FCHI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) chart data