Why it matters
- Brent crude dropped to $97.08 a barrel early Tuesday, Oct. 6, then recovered to settle up 26 cents at $100.58, Reuters reported. U.S. crude settled up 1 cent at $89.44.
- Supply is coming back. Saudi Arabia cut its November price for Asian buyers, its East-West pipeline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, and G7 nations will release 100 million barrels from reserves.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration still expects $105 Brent in the fourth quarter, because global inventories keep falling and Middle East output is still disrupted.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell as low as $97.08 a barrel on Tuesday, Oct. 6, then recovered to settle up 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $100.58, Reuters reported. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 1 cent at $89.44 after touching $86.86 earlier in the day, according to Yahoo Finance data. Both benchmarks finished the day slightly higher.
Why did oil prices swing on Tuesday?
Two forces pulled in opposite directions. Supply news pushed prices down in the morning. Security risks pulled them back up.
On the supply side, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom's East-West pipeline was pumping 5.8 million barrels a day as of Tuesday morning, Reuters reported. The pipeline lets Saudi crude reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Group of Seven agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, Reuters said.
On the risk side, a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, and reports said Iran had stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Trading Economics. Houthi strikes hit airports in Jazan and Najran on Monday, injuring three people, Reuters reported.
What does the Saudi price cut signal?
It signals that Saudi Arabia wants to win back buyers in Asia as Middle East flows recover. Saudi Aramco set its November Arab Light price for Asia at $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a wider discount than $2 in October and a six-year low, The National reported. Traders polled by Bloomberg had expected a $5 increase, the paper said. Aramco raised its price for Europe by $3 and left U.S. prices unchanged.
Seven OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided on Oct. 4 to keep November production at September's required level, OPEC said. They meet next on Nov. 1.
Oil market in numbers
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Brent settlement, Oct. 6 | $100.58 (+$0.26) | Reuters |
| Brent intraday low, Oct. 6 | $97.08 | Yahoo Finance |
| WTI settlement, Oct. 6 | $89.44 (+$0.01) | Reuters |
| Brent close, Sept. 15 | $108.75 | Yahoo Finance |
| Arab Light to Asia, November | $5 below benchmark (October: $2 below) | The National |
| East-West pipeline flow | 5.8 million barrels a day | Reuters |
| EIA Brent forecast, 4Q 2026 | $105 | EIA |
| EIA Brent forecast, 2026 / 2027 average | $96 / $84 (prior: $91 / $74) | EIA |
| Global inventory draw, 3Q / 4Q 2026 | 1.9 / 0.7 million barrels a day | EIA |
| Middle East shut-in output, September | 4.8 million barrels a day | EIA |
| U.S. commercial crude stocks, week to Sept. 25 | 427.3 million barrels (+0.9 million) | EIA |
| U.S. distillate stocks, week to Sept. 25 | 105.2 million barrels (14.9% below a year ago) | EIA |
Why does the EIA expect higher prices?
Because inventories are still shrinking. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the EIA estimated that global oil stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter and will fall another 0.7 million barrels a day in the fourth. It expects Middle East flows to stay constrained through year-end, with shut-in production averaging 4.5 million barrels a day. The agency raised its 2026 Brent average to $96 from $91 and sees prices easing to $87 by the second quarter of 2027.
In the U.S., the squeeze is in fuels, not crude. Commercial crude stocks were 2.6% above a year earlier in the week to Sept. 25, but distillate stocks, which include diesel, were 14.9% lower, EIA data show. Analysts expect crude stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 2, Reuters reported. Our report on China pausing fuel exports explains why diesel is tight in Asia too.
Gold also gained. Gold futures traded near $4,191.60 an ounce in late U.S. trading, up 0.84% from Monday's close, according to Yahoo Finance data.
For how oil above $100 fed into bond yields last week, see our analysis of the 10-year yield. Track Brent, WTI and gold on our world markets page and the next OPEC+ meeting on the economic calendar.
Sources
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Oil market report, Oct. 6, 2026
- Yahoo Finance, Brent crude futures (BZ=F) chart data
- Yahoo Finance, WTI crude futures (CL=F) chart data
- Yahoo Finance, Gold futures (GC=F) chart data
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct. 6, 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, STEO: Global oil markets
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Table 1
- OPEC, Press release, Oct. 4, 2026
- The National, Saudi Aramco cuts Asia crude prices to six-year low as oil flows rebound
- Trading Economics, Crude oil