Why it matters
- The gap between French and German 10-year bond yields widened to 147 basis points on Monday, Oct. 19, from about 110 in late September, Reuters said. That is the widest since the 2011–2012 euro debt crisis.
- France's 10-year yield was about 4.95% on Tuesday morning, Oct. 20, against 3.41% for Germany and 4.59% for Italy, Trading Economics quotes show. France now pays more than Italy on 10-year debt.
- Trading Economics tied the rise to nationwide protests, curfews and a contested 2027 budget, with a Moody's rating review due Friday. The ECB meets Oct. 28–29.
Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.
The extra yield France pays over Germany on 10-year government bonds, the OAT–Bund spread, widened to 147 basis points on Monday, Oct. 19, Reuters reported. That is up from about 110 basis points in late September and matches levels last seen in the 2011–2012 European debt crisis. On Tuesday morning, Trading Economics quotes put France's 10-year yield at about 4.95% and Germany's at 3.41%, a gap of roughly 1.54 percentage points.
Why are French bond yields rising?
The outlets cited here point to unrest at home, a budget fight and a global bond selloff. Reuters said riots in France added to concerns about the country's worsening fiscal outlook, and that the central government asked some local authorities to impose curfews after a weekend of riots and looting tied to nationwide anti-government protests.
Trading Economics said France's 10-year yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.94% early Monday, on track for its biggest one-day rise since March 2025. It said the National Assembly was set to vote Tuesday on the revenue section of the 2027 draft budget, and that investors were awaiting a Moody's credit rating review on Friday, Oct. 23. It also cited a global bond selloff driven by inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates.
Reuters said the unrest is seen as improving National Rally leader Marine Le Pen's chances in next year's presidential election.
How wide is the spread now?
Different sources measure it at different times of day, so readings vary by a few basis points.
| Date | OAT–Bund spread | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Late September | About 110 bp | Reuters |
| Oct. 5 | 152 bp, intraday | Trading Economics |
| Oct. 19 | 147 bp | Reuters |
| Oct. 20, about 7:50 a.m. GMT | About 147 bp | Trading Economics |
| Oct. 20, morning quotes | About 154 bp (4.95% vs. 3.41%) | Trading Economics yields, our calculation |
Trading Economics said on Oct. 5 that its 152-point reading was the largest premium since 2011.
How does France compare with Italy?
France has moved above Italy. In the European Central Bank's monthly long-term interest rate data, France's 10-year rate averaged 4.44% in September, above Italy's 4.362%, according to the ECB.
| Month | France | Italy | Germany | France–Germany | Italy–Germany |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2025 | 3.51% | 3.559% | 2.693% | 82 bp | 87 bp |
| Dec. 2025 | 3.56% | 3.552% | 2.813% | 75 bp | 74 bp |
| March 2026 | 3.64% | 3.733% | 2.91% | 73 bp | 82 bp |
| June 2026 | 3.68% | 3.734% | 2.964% | 72 bp | 77 bp |
| July 2026 | 3.85% | 3.881% | 3.07% | 78 bp | 81 bp |
| Aug. 2026 | 4.00% | 3.986% | 3.185% | 82 bp | 80 bp |
| Sept. 2026 | 4.44% | 4.362% | 3.473% | 97 bp | 89 bp |
Source: ECB, long-term interest rates for convergence purposes, 10-year, monthly. Spreads are our calculation, rounded.
On Tuesday, Trading Economics quoted Italy's 10-year yield at 4.59%, about 118 basis points over Germany and roughly 36 below France.
What is Germany's 10-year yield doing?
It has eased since late September. The Bundesbank's 10-year yield fell to 3.46% on Oct. 19 from 3.60% on Sept. 30 and a September peak of 3.66% on Sept. 28. It was 3.18% on July 31.
| Date | Germany 10-year (Bundesbank) |
|---|---|
| July 31 | 3.18% |
| Aug. 31 | 3.33% |
| Sept. 30 | 3.60% |
| Oct. 9 | 3.50% |
| Oct. 16 | 3.45% |
| Oct. 19 | 3.46% |
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank.
How the numbers differ
The Bundesbank figure is a fitted yield for a 10.0-year residual maturity, derived from the term structure of listed federal securities, not the price of a single benchmark bond. Trading Economics uses over-the-counter interbank quotes for benchmark bonds, which move during the day. The ECB series is a monthly figure compiled for the euro's convergence criteria. Spreads built from different sources can differ by several basis points from wire-service readings.
What comes next on the calendar?
The ECB's Governing Council meets Oct. 28–29 in Frankfurt, with a press conference on Oct. 29, the ECB's calendar shows. The ECB raised its deposit rate a quarter point to 2.50%, effective Sept. 16. For how the euro has reacted, see our dollar index drivers analysis and our explainer on why bond yields matter. Live levels are on our world markets page.
Sources
- Reuters via AOL, Euro dips on French turmoil, US dollar lifted as stocks rebound, Oct. 19, 2026
- Trading Economics, France 10-year government bond yield, Germany 10-year bond yield and Italy 10-year government bond yield, accessed Oct. 20, 2026
- Trading Economics, French Borrowing Costs Rise as Unrest Deepens, Oct. 19, 2026; French Bond Yields Ease After Sharp Rise, Oct. 20, 2026; French Bond Yields at 2002 High, Oct. 5, 2026
- European Central Bank, long-term interest rates for convergence purposes: France, Italy, Germany, accessed Oct. 20, 2026
- Deutsche Bundesbank, 10-year yields derived from the term structure of listed federal securities, daily, accessed Oct. 20, 2026
- European Central Bank, Governing Council meeting calendar and Sept. 10, 2026 monetary policy decisions